Above the Forecast | Red Sox Pitching

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The staff-wide answer

More value than expected

Actual fWAR —

vs.

Forecast by now —

—

forecast

Team ERA—

Innings covered—

Games played—

The shape of the surprise

Who moved the season?

Every mark is a pitcher. Above the diagonal means more fWAR than Steamer expected by this point; larger marks mean more innings.

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Every arm, in context

Pitcher reports

How to read this: “Forecast by now” prorates each pitcher’s full-season preseason Steamer projection to Boston’s games played. Actual value is FanGraphs WAR (fWAR). ERA, FIP, and K−BB% compare current performance with the original full-season rate forecast.

Data: FanGraphs Steamer projections, FanGraphs leaderboards, and MLB.